There is still a day to go. But the Post-Poll reports look monotonously grim. Frankly I do not think it is going to matter much to India whether the Congress or the BJP lead the coalition. What I am worried about is the State Assembly Elections of 2011.
Scenario I ;
Congress forms the government this time with the usual allies (I am not sure about RJD, but I have a feeling they will eventually join) including the Left. The left will naturally not take up ministries. They like drinking stuff with a long straw.
Now TMC has 2 options.
- To join UPA- in which case it will be extremely difficult for them to form a credible opposition in 2011 against the Makku-Party. Plus, I have serious doubts if the Congress will be willing to partner with them. SUCI probably will. And hopefully they will manage to reconcile the differences with PDS.
- To not join the UPA- This will give them more credibility in the State Polls, but make them strategically weaker since the Congress and the Left will be allies at the center.
Scenario II
BJP forms the government. From the pre-poll campaigns it is quite clear that they will invite TMC to join NDA. Again TMC has two options.
- To join the government- Horrible move this will be. The congress won't stand by them in 2011 and above all it will seriously taint their credibility. To an extent that it will be the doom of them (recall 2004?)
- To not join the government- This is clearly the best possible situation strategically. The congress and the TMC remain allies. The left remains an opponent at the state level. The BJP government at the center will ensure neutral polls at the state level.
Disclaimer: I am anti-pseudo-communist. Hence, all 'best possible situations' are naturally my way of looking at things. I am looking at things from the perspective of the State, and as to what could be the best way to oppose the left here.
After attempting to bring down a Govt over the nuclear deal a few months ago, if the Left go and join it now, then the time will come to ask them to stop talking about ideologies. If they join an UPA led govt at the centre then, to me, they will lose all their credibility (whatever is left of it).
ReplyDeleteHowever, it is Indian politics I am talking about. So I shouldn't be surprised with any outcome. Ah well. :P
p.s. Have you seen NDTV's coverage? Much as I love the channel (and watch it obsessively), I think it is high time Barkha Dutt stopped TALKING and started LISTENING. Or start a show where she is the only person in the studio, jabbering away for hours together. The woman never lets her guests finish their sentences!
p.p.s. Prannoy Roy still rules though! :D
In Indian politics there are no ideologies. Specially apart from the Congress and the BJP, for the rest, it doesn't much matter who they support. I mean look at Mayawati, Nitish Kumar, Mulayam Singh, Amar Singh and their likes. But at least they don't pretend to have ideals. They are here to take the moolah and they have no facade.
ReplyDeleteUnlike the left, which talks about ideologies and has none. Even Subhash Chakraborty admits that the Nuclear deal was too insignificant a reason to leave the UPA. The problem with the Left is, they somehow seem to believe that if you are a (pseudo)communist you must have an identical opinion on the issue. They refuse to acknowledge the individual.
PS: I used to be a fan of Prannoy Roy. I like Rajeev Sardesai too.
rajdeep
ReplyDeleteTo summarize, the nuclear deal was made transparent in eventuality.
ReplyDeleteHowever, even if the deal may have generated some economic benefits and losses, that analysis was not the main reason why the Left withdrew support from the UPA.
The deal ties India and US in very complex and involved threads, economically, legally, and especially in cases of war.
While that might seem like a good thing, to be the friend of what is now the only effective superpower, it can actually prove to be a nightmare.
It is difficult to predict how things will emerge in the long run, but the pragmatic worst-case scenario is very grim. While the deal in itself is good, certain clauses in it have far reaching implications, and push the boundary of political ethic.
For a Leftist mindset, especially for the older school, like Karat this was not acceptable.
I agree. The deal required more tweaking,