There is still a day to go. But the Post-Poll reports look monotonously grim. Frankly I do not think it is going to matter much to India whether the Congress or the BJP lead the coalition. What I am worried about is the State Assembly Elections of 2011.
Scenario I ;
Congress forms the government this time with the usual allies (I am not sure about RJD, but I have a feeling they will eventually join) including the Left. The left will naturally not take up ministries. They like drinking stuff with a long straw.
Now TMC has 2 options.
- To join UPA- in which case it will be extremely difficult for them to form a credible opposition in 2011 against the Makku-Party. Plus, I have serious doubts if the Congress will be willing to partner with them. SUCI probably will. And hopefully they will manage to reconcile the differences with PDS.
- To not join the UPA- This will give them more credibility in the State Polls, but make them strategically weaker since the Congress and the Left will be allies at the center.
BJP forms the government. From the pre-poll campaigns it is quite clear that they will invite TMC to join NDA. Again TMC has two options.
- To join the government- Horrible move this will be. The congress won't stand by them in 2011 and above all it will seriously taint their credibility. To an extent that it will be the doom of them (recall 2004?)
- To not join the government- This is clearly the best possible situation strategically. The congress and the TMC remain allies. The left remains an opponent at the state level. The BJP government at the center will ensure neutral polls at the state level.
Disclaimer: I am anti-pseudo-communist. Hence, all 'best possible situations' are naturally my way of looking at things. I am looking at things from the perspective of the State, and as to what could be the best way to oppose the left here.